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12/10/2013 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

This table below shows recent results for horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Flemington - 5/10/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Launay
60kg.
2
1410
$10.00
9/11
Sea Moon
60kg.
14
2520
$4.40fav.
2/13
Rosehill - 28/9/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ecuador
60kg.
2
1900
$1.40fav.
2/10
Morphettville - 28/9/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mossego
60.5kg.
10
1550
$9.00
4/12
Spirit Of Endeavour
60kg.
2
1550
$4.80fav.
10/12
Morphettville - 21/9/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Beware Of Thestorm
60kg.
4
2010
$5.50
3/13
Moonee Valley - 14/9/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Motivado
60kg.
8
2500
$9.00
9/10
Randwick - 7/9/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hay List
60.5kg.
1
1000
$7.50
5/9
Shoot Out
60.5kg.
1
1400
$4.60
11/14
Sincero
60.5kg.
11
1400
$9.50
13/14
Morphettville - 31/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Murtle Turtle
60kg.
4
1100
$5.00
3/7
Liveforthemoment
60kg.
1
1200
$10.00
11/11
Warwick Farm - 24/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Travolta
61kg.
6
2200
$2.70fav.
2/7
Morphettville - 24/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Wise And Happy
60kg.
3
1000
$10.00
1/10
Rosehill - 17/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Travolta
61kg.
6
1800
$4.40
4/14
Caulfield - 17/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Chasse
60kg.
2
1600
$8.00
6/7
Bello
60kg.
11
1200
$6.50
6/12
Morphettville - 17/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Zaman
70kg.
8
3500 steeplechase
$2.90fav.
1/8
Randwick - 10/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Whitlam
60.5kg.
1
1100
$8.00
3/6
Flemington - 10/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Luckygray
60kg.
8
1200
$6.00
6/10
Eagle Farm - 10/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Adebisi
60.5kg.
7
1000
$3.10fav.
3/7
Morphettville - 10/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Zaman
70kg.
1
3500 hurdle
$5.00
3/7
Rosehill - 3/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Travolta
60kg.
9
2000
$5.50
2/10
Moonee Valley - 3/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Metastasio
60kg.
1
1000
$1.95fav.
2/5
Reuben Percival
61kg.
7
2500
$4.40
5/11
Mrphettville - 3/8/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Border Express
60kg.
8
1950
$6.00
11/12
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make trifecta money betting odds on favourites and good things
The Free Track, Distance and First Up horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 5/10/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 29/9/2013 & 27/9/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 21/9/2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/10/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 28/9/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/9/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 21/9/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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