13/9/2002 edition

Carnival Horseracing
Value Betting Odds

Spring Carnival racing is well and truly here. Races are already having an early affect on the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup betting markets.

It is absolutely essential to get genuine value with your bets. Many horses going around as $4.00 favourites in fields of 15 runners are well under their true winning chances.

Have a look at some of the horses that went around as beaten favourites last Saturday:

Flemington:

Dubai Ice - $4.20 in a 3YO Fillies Open over 1100 metres. First up. In the field of 12 there were another two first up runners and an unraced filly. There were also plenty of lightly raced fillies capable of significant improvement. Then of course, being a straight race, there was the track.

Dubai Ice had barrier five. It was the first straight race of the day. If she raced on the wrong side of the track all bets were lost with effectively no run for your money. She finished seventh, beaten by over four lengths.

Great Glen - $3.00. Top weight of 57.5kg. in a 3YO Open. Last start he defeated fellow competitors King Wells by half a length and Broadband by even less. This was a field of 12 runners, not just three runners. Great Glen finished eighth of 11.

Ugachaka - $4.00. She was carrying the steadier of 58.5kg. in a Mares Listed race. This mare generally gets back in her races. She would need more than her fair share of luck to win in that big field of 16, even with Damien Oliver in the saddle. Ugachaka couldn't get a clear run in the straight until too late. At $4.00 she was just a very poor value bet. She never had a 25% chance of winning.

Rubitano - $2.80 in a very open field of 14, a Group 3 Handicap down the notorious Flemington straight. Rubitano had top weight of 57.5kg. He also finished last of nine at his previous start, when the excuse made was that he didn't handle the Slow track conditions at Moonee Valley. Mind you, he had a win and a second at his two other starts on rain affected tracks.

When excuses are made for a horse's last start failure, long experience has shown them to be bad bets as short priced favourites next start in the same campaign.

Rubitano, favoured by the extreme outside barrier, put in a strong run, but found one better in Chong Tong. When you take short odds, you can't afford for that to happen too often, because you must get a high winning strike rate just to break even.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington racetrack farce
Trifecta betting tips
Carnival racing favourites, value betting odds
Spring Carnival horses and betting tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Flemington, Doomben plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/9/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.