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14/7/2007 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 7/7/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Taken At The Flood
60kg.
3
1900
$11.00
4/9
Cheltenham - 30/6/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gunner Tom
59kg.
5
1316
$4.80
3/9
Doomben - 26/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sniper's Bullet
60kg.
3
1200
$3.80
2/11
Rosehill - 19/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Vanquished
60.5kg.
7
2400
$11.00
6/14
Cheltenham - 19/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Musanid
59kg.
13
1260
$6.50
1/14
Doomben - 12/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ten To Countdown
59kg.
8
1350
$5.50
6/15
Morphettville - 12/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Apamea
59kg.
5
1200
$10.00
3/8
Morphettville - 28/4/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Exalted Ego
59.5kg.
1
1600
$4.00fav.
4/9
Eagle Farm - 21/4/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sequential Charm
59kg.
2
1000
$9.00
4/13
Ice Chariot
59.5kg.
12
1600
$11.00
7/15
Morphettville - 21/4/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Royal Ida
59.5kg.
14
1100
$7.50
4/17
Randwick - 14/4/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mustard
59.5kg.
5
1200
$9.50
4/10
Fooram
60kg.
2
1600
$9.50
2/13
Hassle
59kg.
7
1600
$7.50
10/13
Randwick - 7/4/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Newton's Rings
60kg.
1
1400
$5.00
5/5
Caulfield - 7/4/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bel Danoro
59.5kg.
5
1000
$7.00
5/8
Let Go Thommo
59kg.
3
1000
$3.40fav.
4/8
Eagle Farm - 7/4/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bikkie Tin Blues
59kg.
2
1806
$3.70fav.
2/12
Hello Possums
59kg.
7
1806
$7.00
3/12
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Trifecta wagering and staking betting tips
Get those betting odds
The Speed Winners Ratings horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Sandown Lakeside
Betting tips from the track: Randwick Kensington & Sandown Hillside
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 30/6/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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