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16/12/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 9th. December.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $60,000 3YO. Class 4. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Yankee
Result: first

Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes


Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $50,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lakemba Gold
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.60
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Brian Cox
Winner: Zipanese
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: David Jolly

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Byway
Result: third
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Winner: Cool Trent
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.80
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R6 $50,000 Restricted. 0 - 89 Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Two Sons
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.40
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Shannon G Hope
Winner: Bon Henri
Starting price: $17.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $17.30
Jockey: William Hernon
Trainer: John Brooks


Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1812 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Red Sky Night
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Peter Roff
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Chequesinthemail
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.30
Jockey: Kayla Stra
Trainer: Heather Frew

R5 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Jest For Fun
Result: second
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Jon O'Connor
Winner: Terango
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Damien Robinson
Trainer: David Balfour

R8 $15,000 Fillies & Mares. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1310 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Strategic Answer
Result: first

Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Darren Magro

This edition of Punt to Win:
Making trifecta profits betting "good things"
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Top Three Ratings Points horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/12/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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