Punt to Win
Horse Racing Betting
Winter horse racing is most certainly here. There is plenty of racing on genuinely Heavy tracks. How often do you hear the tipsters tell you that a horse will do well on a Heavty track because it loves the wet and has a great record on Slow rated tracks?
Well, to put it bluntly, they don't know what they're talking about. Slow tracks are not Heavy tracks. There is a world of difference. It is simply wrong to assume that Slow track form will stand up on a Heavy track.
In addition, a good rule of thumb is that a horse that has never raced on a Heavy track has a better chance of handling the conditions than a horse that has raced a number of times on a Heavy track without a win.
Here are some comments we made on a meeting on a Heavy track at Sandown Hillside a number of years ago. The comments are of course still valid today.
1. Show Barry was sent out as $4.80 favourite in the first. The 3YO gelding had never raced on a Heavy track and laboured into fourth.
2. Umdinger was backed from $6.00 to $4.60 in an 1800 metres Open. The 5YO gelding had five previous starts on Heavy tracks for two wins and two seconds. Umdinger won by seven lengths.
3. I Do Blue comfortably won an Open over 1500 metres. The 4YO gelding had raced three times on Heavy tracks for a win and two seconds. In the same race Berezny was sent out as favourite and finished seventh in the field of 13, beaten by seven lengths.
Berezny had raced 24 times for only one start on a Heavy - a third. Why had it only raced once on a Heavy track? Why back that 5YO gelding as favourite? Berezny was a proven non-winner. He now has three wins from 25 starts.
4. Ghost Party won the last of the day, an Open over 1300 metres. This 5YO horse is a proven wet tracker. Prior to Saturday he had raced 11 times on Heavy tracks for six wins and another four placings. His 15 starts on Good to Dead tracks are the reverse - no wins and just six placings. Yet Ghost Party was sent out at $8.00!! By comparison Stratton Place, the $2.15 favourite, had raced four times on Heavy tracks for just one win. Yet on tracks better than Heavy he had five wins from 11 starts. That could tell you something.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2008 Melbourne Cup Day
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