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18/7/2009 edition

Horse Racing Betting
on
Heavy Tracks

Winter horse racing is most certainly here. There is plenty of racing on genuinely Heavy tracks. How often do you hear the tipsters tell you that a horse will do well on a Heavty track because it loves the wet and has a great record on Slow rated tracks?

Well, to put it bluntly, they don't know what they're talking about. Slow tracks are not Heavy tracks. There is a world of difference. It is simply wrong to assume that Slow track form will stand up on a Heavy track.

In addition, a good rule of thumb is that a horse that has never raced on a Heavy track has a better chance of handling the conditions than a horse that has raced a number of times on a Heavy track without a win.

Here are some comments we made on a meeting on a Heavy track at Sandown Hillside a number of years ago. The comments are of course still valid today.

1. Show Barry was sent out as $4.80 favourite in the first. The 3YO gelding had never raced on a Heavy track and laboured into fourth.

2. Umdinger was backed from $6.00 to $4.60 in an 1800 metres Open. The 5YO gelding had five previous starts on Heavy tracks for two wins and two seconds. Umdinger won by seven lengths.

3. I Do Blue comfortably won an Open over 1500 metres. The 4YO gelding had raced three times on Heavy tracks for a win and two seconds. In the same race Berezny was sent out as favourite and finished seventh in the field of 13, beaten by seven lengths.

Berezny had raced 24 times for only one start on a Heavy - a third. Why had it only raced once on a Heavy track? Why back that 5YO gelding as favourite? Berezny was a proven non-winner. He now has three wins from 25 starts.

4. Ghost Party won the last of the day, an Open over 1300 metres. This 5YO horse is a proven wet tracker. Prior to Saturday he had raced 11 times on Heavy tracks for six wins and another four placings. His 15 starts on Good to Dead tracks are the reverse - no wins and just six placings. Yet Ghost Party was sent out at $8.00!! By comparison Stratton Place, the $2.15 favourite, had raced four times on Heavy tracks for just one win. Yet on tracks better than Heavy he had five wins from 11 starts. That could tell you something.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wagering on Heavy tracks
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/6/2009
The Consistency and Fitness horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/7/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/7/2009 & 27/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/6/2009
Punt to Win index


2008 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
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Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Juggle The Books 26.00 37.70 $117
Viewed 37.10 46.50 $94
Origami Miss 13.80 20.30 $65
Hips Don't Lie 12.20 17.00 $48
Danzylum 14.20 17.00 $28


 

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