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18/7/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Sandown Lakeside, Saturday, 11th. July, 2009.

Sandown Lakeside
Track: Heavy
Rail: Out 8 metres
Penetrometer: 6.21

R1 $100,000 Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: 3900 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Geeorb
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 3200
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Ciaron Maher

R2 $70,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3300 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Pentiffic
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 3200
Result last start: 3-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Trent Wells
Trainer: Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston

R3 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Denman
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R4 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Eau De Joie
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: David Hayes

R5 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: With Decorum
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: John Blacker

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Silky Smooth
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 6-14
Result this start: 3rd.

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Red Buttons
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Michael Kent

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Scenic Scene
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-4
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Luke Oliver

Comments:
In R4 the favourite dropped back in distance from 2040 metres to 1600 metres and finished second, 1.5 lengths from the winner. While in R6 the short priced favourite, Silky Smooth, failed to win after running sixth at its previous start.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wagering on Heavy tracks
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/6/2009
The Consistency and Fitness horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/7/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/7/2009 & 27/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/6/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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