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18/7/2009 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Randwick - 11/7/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bright Mind
59kg.
9
2400
$5.00
4/9
Mulaman
59.5kg.
8
1200
$5.00
8/11
Morphettville - 11/7/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Who's Ya Daddy
59.5kg.
3
1200
$5.00
11/11
Rosehill - 4/7/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Without Compromise
59.5kg.
6
1500
$4.20
2/11
Bejewelled
59.5kg.
7
1200
$3.70fav.
5/10
Spectacular Bird
59.5kg.
1
1200
$11.00
7/10
Ugly Betty
59.5kg.
6
1200
$11.00
3/10
Eagle Farm - 4/7/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mr Aristos
59.5kg.
10
1000
$6.50
1/16
Morphettville - 4/7/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Valoroso
59kg.
3
1200
$8.00
14/15
Rosehill - 27/6/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Nuclear Sky
59.5kg.
8
2400
$6.00
4/8
Jest Crewsin'
59kg.
2
1100
$6.50
4/13
Randwick Kensington Inner Track - 20/6/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Two Towers
59.5kg.
4
2000
$8.50
3/8
Morphettville - 20/6/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Big Production
59kg.
5
1400
$5.50
8/10
Ipswich - 13/6/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bellagio Wynn
59kg.
1
1666
$3.80fav.
3/12
Morphettville - 13/6/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Silent Sophia
59kg.
5
1200
$4.40
3/6
Eagle Farm - 6/6/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Scenic Shot
60kg.
15
2400
$6.50ef.
1/16
Morphettville - 6/6/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Big Production
59.5kg.
9
1200
$9.00
5/9
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wagering on Heavy tracks
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/6/2009
The Consistency and Fitness horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/7/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/7/2009 & 27/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/6/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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