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18/7/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 4th. July, 2009.

Morphettville: Track Slow

R2 $30,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: With Apologies
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Linda Meech
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Starlite
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: John Vandermyle

R3 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Disquiet
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Zodiac Queen
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Daniel Clarken


Here is the result from Saturday, 27th. June, 2009.

Rosehill: Track Heavy

R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sir James
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Winner: Mossurmi
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.10
Jockey: Craig Agnew
Trainer: Marc Conners

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing wagering on Heavy tracks
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 11/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 4/7/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/6/2009
The Consistency and Fitness horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/7/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/7/2009 & 27/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/6/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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