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19/9/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, September 13.

Eagle Farm: Track Good
R1 $24,000 Class 6. Handicap
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Sequality
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: short half head
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctation: $3.10
Jockey: Adam Best
Trainer: Barry Miller
Winner: Our Fabio
Winning margin: short half head
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctation: $3.20
Tote dividends' range: $3.10 - $3.40
Jockey: Lacey Morrison
Trainer: Rex Lipp

R4 $28,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Jeremiad
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctation: $3.30
Tote dividends' range: $3.50 - $3.80
Jockey: Scott Galloway
Trainer: John Hawkes

Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $24,000 Open. Handicap
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Quite Easy
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $1.20
Top fluctation: $1.20
Tote dividends' range: $1.30 - $1.30
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Richard Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Comment - Group 1 Manikato Stakes
Race analysis - this bet can't lose
Moonee Valley - good luck or hard luck racetrack?
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Gai Waterhouse, John Hawkes and Private Steer
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/9/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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