19/9/2003 edition

"It's A Certainty
Nothing Else Can Win"

How often do we hear something like, "This horse is a moral. Nothing else can win," or "There are only three horses that can win this race." Unfortunately, too often.

Don't fall for it. Looking at races like that will make you take poor odds about those horses you back and guarantee you are a long term loser. The only race that has just three winning chances is a three horse race. And there aren't too many of them around.

Last Saturday there was a 1000 metres Open Handicap held at Moonee Valley. Six of the 13 runners were resuming from a spell. The race was an absolute raffle.

Yet that morning on Radio Sport 927 one of the tipping panel, said something along the lines of, "There are only three winning chances. I can't see anything else winning," and then went on to name those "three winning chances" - Azevedo, Feel The Noise and Toast Of The Coast.

Where did those three horses finish? First, second and third? Wrong. One of them won though? Wrong again. Then two of them ran second and third? Wrong, yet again. They finished seventh, ninth and tenth!

You really think the media horse racing tipster should have realised that more than just three horses had a chance of winning that race.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Comment - Group 1 Manikato Stakes
Race analysis - this bet can't lose
Moonee Valley - good luck or hard luck racetrack?
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Gai Waterhouse, John Hawkes and Private Steer
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/9/2003
Punt to Win index

Back Tote Longshots?

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