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20/1/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 13th. January.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $65,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Validated
Result: sixth
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Winner: Fantastic Angel
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: David Payne

R4 $65,000 Fillies & Mares. 0 - 93. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Jack's Girl
Result: first

Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Chris Waller


Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Listen Here
Result: third
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.75
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Shrewd Rhythm
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.10
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Greg Eurell


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Arondan
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Peter Roff
Trainer: Mark Minervini
Winner: Amici Forever
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Kayla Stra
Trainer: Jon O'Connor

R3 $30,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Reli Of Nic
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Damien Robinson
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Aprisa
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Lee Freedman

This edition of Punt to Win:
Value betting horses
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Improving Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/12/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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