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20/5/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

For the first time in many months there were no fields of seven or less at the four main metropolitan Saturday meetings, so we have repeated last week's information.

Here are the results from Saturday, 6th. May.

Rosehill: Track Good

R4 $80,000 3YO and upward. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Swansea
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Guy Walter
Winner: No Wine No Song
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Kevin Moses

Here are the results from Saturday, 29th. April.

Caulfield: Track Dead

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Green Birdie
Result: third
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.65
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Brian Jenkins
Winner: Far Horizons
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $16.50
Jockey: Mark Flaherty
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $50,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cinque
Result: first

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting in advance on feature races
Betting advice for hurdles & steeplechases
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Barrier Improvers horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/5/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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