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22/9/2007 edition

Horse Racing Betting Myths

Horse racing betting myth:
Don't bet on horses dropping back in distance

The "betting rules" that many punters accept are just betting myths that help them lose.

"Statistically there is next to no difference between the strike rate of horses going up in distance as opposed to coming back.

Making general assumptions about any aspect of racing results in punters not backing good winners. Many punters lose because of the fixed rules they have in their heads that influence their form analysis and betting decisions.

Every race needs to be treated in isolation. Each horse has its own peculiarities and traits. Some horses love dropping back in distance. Some horses don't. Some trainers have great success when they drop horses back in distance. Some trainers don't.

There will be times where a horse going up in distance is a top chance and other times where that distance rise means it has little chance. Just like there will be times when a horse dropping back in distance becomes a great bet.

The sooner punters stop thinking about racing as a group of fixed rules and look at each race with an open mind, not clouded by fixed rules automatically eliminating large numbers of horses, the sooner they can move towrds having a better chance of making money over the long term.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis: dropping back in distance
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The True Favourites horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/9/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/9/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 8/9/2007
Punt to Win index

2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


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