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22/9/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 15th. September.

Eagle Farm: Track Good

R2 $17,000 Open. Handicap.
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Malta
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Scott Seamer
Trainer: Rob Heathcote

Morphettville: Track Good

R2 $20,000 Mares. Rs 0 - 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Silent Sophia
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: William Smart

R3 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Reshuffles
Result: first

Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Louise Morgan
Trainer: David Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis: dropping back in distance
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The True Favourites horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/9/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/9/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 8/9/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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