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28/10/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 14th. October.

Rosehill: Track Good

R2 $60,000 3YO. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Devout
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Kevin Moses
Winner: Lasker
Starting price: $91.00
Top fluctuation: $91.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $45.90
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Bart Cummings


Caulfield - Caulfield Guineas Day: Track Good

R5 $400,000 3YO and upward. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: El Segundo
Result: third
Starting price: $1.45
Top fluctuation: $1.45
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Colin Little
Winner: Casual Pass
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.80
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton


Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $20,000 4YO and upward. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1450 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mercia
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Gold On Gold
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Ken Sweeney

R2 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Miss Theron
Result: first

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Mick Price
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60

R3 $20,000 4YO and upward. Rs0mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Soloist
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Sandhill Prince
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Kate Walters
Trainer: Sam Turner

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tawqeet wins 2006 Caulfield Cup - Melbourne Cup betting form race
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Duck Egg horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/10/2006 - Caulfield Cup Day
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/10/2006 - Caulfield Guineas Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 21/10/2006 - Caulfield Cup Day
Betting tips from the track: 14/10/2006 - Caulfield Guineas Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/10/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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