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30/4/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

Plus Group 1 Horse Racing Results

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the Group 1 horse racing results from Saturday, 23rd. April, 2011.

On this day there were four Group 1 races held at the Heavy rated Randwick horse racing track. In race order:

1. The $400,000 2YO Group 1 Champagne Stakes run over 1600 metres. The winner was the Peter Snowden trained $5.50 favourite, 2YO colt Helmet, ridden by Kerrin McEvoy.

The $500,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Queen Elizabeth Stakes run over 2000 metres. The winner was the Chris Waller trained 6YO gelding, My Kingdon Of Fife, ridden by Nash Rawiller. My Kingdon Of Fife firmed from $15.00 to start at $13.00 with the bookmakers. Best tote odds were $14.10. The $3.80 equal favourites were 5YO mare Sacred Choice, trained by Joseph Pride and ridden by Tim Clark. It finished second by 0.8 lengths. The other $3.80 equal favourite was 3YO colt Retrieve trained by Peter Snowden and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy.
It finished fourth, beaten by 1.4 lengths.

The $500,000 Group 1 Sydney Cup run over 3200 metres. The winner, which only gained a start when there was a scratching, was the Chris Waller trained 5YO gelding, Stand To Gain, ridden by Rod Quinn. Stand To Gain firmed a touch from $21.00 to start at $20.00 with the bookmakers. Best tote odds were $35.80. The $6.50 favourite, 6YO gelding Hawk Island, also trained by Chris Waller, fell during the race. Hawk Island was ridden by Glyn Schofield.

4. The $400,000 Group 1 Weight for Age All Aged Stakes run over 1400 metres. The easy winner by 3.3 lengths was the John McNair trained $2.40 favourite, 5YO gelding, Hay List, ridden by Glen Boss. Hay List firmed from $2.70.

There were no small fields on Saturday, 23rd. April, 2011 at the four main metropolitan horse race meetings.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to approach midweek Wednesday horse racing wagering
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Classy Class Horse, horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 23/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 16/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 9/4/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/4/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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