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30/4/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

Plus Group 1 Horse Racing Results

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 9th. April, 2011.

On this day the $1,500,000 3YO Group 1 AJC Australian Derby and the $1,000,000 Group 1 Weight for Age T. J. Smith Stakes were held at Randwick horse racing track. The T. J. Smith Stakes was easily won by the World's number one ranked race horse, the Peter G. Moody trained champion 4YO mare Black Caviar, beating 5YO gelding Hay List by 2.8 lengths. It was Black Caviar's twelfth win from 12 race starts. Black Caviar was ridden by the Stable jockey, Luke Nolen. The AJC Australian Derby was won by the Danny O'Brien trained 3YO filly Shamrocker, ridden by Glen Boss. Shamrocker firmed a touch with the bookmakers from $5.50 to start at $5.00.

Caulfield: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: General Offer
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon
Winner: Burnout
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Peter Snowden

Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $40,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Reventon
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: John P. Thompson

R7 $80,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Time Matters
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Darren Weir
Winner: Budriguez
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: David Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to approach midweek Wednesday horse racing wagering
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Classy Class Horse, horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 23/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 16/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 9/4/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/4/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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