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30/4/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

Plus Group 1 Horse Racing Results

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 16th. April, 2011.

On this day the $2,000,000 3YO & UP Group 1 Doncaster Mile handicap was held at Randwick horse racing track. Also run at Randwick were the $550,000 3YO Fillies Group 1 AJC Oaks and the $350,000 Group 1 The Galaxy handicap run over 1100 metres. The Doncaster Mile was won by the Joseph Pride trained 5YO mare, Sacred Choice, ridden by Tim Clark. Sacred Choice firmed from $10.00 to start at $8.00 with the bookmakers. Best tote odds were $11.10. The $3.00 Gai Waterhouse trained favourite, 4YO mare More Joyous, which entered the race with a record of 14 wins from 18 races, finished eleventh in the field of 17, beaten by more than eight lengths. The track was a Heavy 10, and More Joyous had only once previously raced on a Heavy track - and was unplaced.

3YO filly Absolutely
won the AJC Oaks by 3.5 lengths, defying its starting price odds of $31.00! Best tote odds were $26.50. Absolutely was trained by Michael Kent and ridden by Brad Rawiller. The $3.50 favourite, Shamrocker, trained by Danny O'Brien and ridden by Glen Boss, finished second. While The Galaxy was won by 5YO gelding Atomic Force, trained by Darren Smith and also ridden by Tim Clark. Atomic Force, which won by 2.8 lengths, firmed from $15.00 to start at $10.00 with the bookmakers. Best tote odds were $12.50. The Gai Waterhouse trained $5.50 favourite, 5YO entire Swift Alliance, ridden by Nash Rawiller, finished sixth of 11, beaten by over five lengths.

Randwick: Doncaster Mile Day - Track Heavy.

R4 $100,000 3YO. Listed Quality Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sea Lord
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Lucha Libre
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $12.20
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $30,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Tibooburra Travis
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Trent Wells
Trainer: Leon Wells
Winner: Honour The Force
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.60
Jockey: Paul Hamblin
Trainer: Eric Musgrove

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to approach midweek Wednesday horse racing wagering
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Classy Class Horse, horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 23/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 16/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 9/4/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/4/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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