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31/10/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday, 24th. October, 2009.

Moonee Valley - W. S. Cox Plate Day
Track: Good
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 4.58

R1 $250,000 2YO. Open. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Marmaa
Days since last start: ---
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 1st. (first race start - no public trial form.)
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $100,000 3YO. Fillies. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Sublimity
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Darren Weir

R3 $150,000 Australia Stakes.
3YO. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Avenue
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.65
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $200,000 Group 2. Open Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Rangirangdoo
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Chris Waller

R5 $200,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Extra Zero
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: David Hayes

R6 $200,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Apache Cat
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Greg Eurell

R7 $250,000 Group 2. 4YO & upward. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Hissing Sid
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R8 $3,000,000 Cox Plate.
3YO & up.
Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Whobegotyou
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R9 $150,000 Group 3. Mares. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Lady Lynette
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

Comments:
W. S. Cox Plate Day, 2009, was a day to forget for many bookies with six favourites winning from the nine races, including the first four races of the day. Punters who level staked each favourite at starting price with just $10 bets made a profit of $150.50! Three of the winning favourites had won their previous race which was held no more than 14 days before this week's races. Two other winning favourites finished second at their previous race held no more than 21 days before this week's races. In R5 the favourite, Extra Zero, ran fifth. It was unplaced at its previous start.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting tips, facts and figures
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 10/10/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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