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31/10/2009 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Doomben - 24/10/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Listen Son
59kg.
4
1615
$3.20fav.
7/10
Strat's Flyer
60kg.
6
1350
$2.90fav.
4/13
Caulfield Cup Day - 17/10/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
So Anyway
59kg.
11
1400
$6.00fav.
2/12
Run For Naara
59kg.
5
2000
$7.50
1/13
Eagle Farm - 17/10/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bazzooka
59kg.
8
1200
$9.00
3/10
Burdekin Blues
59kg.
7
1000
$1.70fav.
1/11
Morphettville - 17/10/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Zyzxx
59kg.
2
1200
$9.00
10/13
Rosehill - 10/10/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
I've Got Talent
59kg.
10
1100
$11.00
3/14
Eagle Farm - 10/10/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mitanni
59kg.
5
1200
$11.00
5/8
Flemington - 3/10/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ista Kareem
59kg.
10
2500
$10.00
4/13
Doomben - 26/9/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hard To Catch
59kg.
1
1350
$6.50
5/5
Morphettville - 26/9/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Maestro Of Murano
59.5kg.
1
2250
$3.80
8/11
Rosehill - 19/9/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lucky Secret
60kg.
5
1100
$5.50
1/9
Morphettville - 19/9/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lord L'anno
59kg.
8
1600
$6.50
4/9
Rosehill - 12/9/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hot Danish
61kg.
4
1200
$2.50fav.
1/8
Racing To Win
60kg.
11
1400
$6.50
1/11
Moonee Valley - 12/9/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Umanugget
59kg.
5
1500
$3.80efav.
6/8
Lady Lynette
59kg.
4
1200
$11.00
4/10
Randwick - 5/9/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Onemorenomore
60kg.
8
1400
$11.00
4/9
Drumbeats
59kg.
1
1400
$6.50
2/12
Flemington - 5/9/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Carrara
59kg.
4
1400
$3.80fav.
1/14
Light Vision
60.5kg.
4
1400
$4.80fav.
2/10
Maldivian
60kg.
11
1200
$10.00
13/15
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting tips, facts and figures
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 10/10/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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