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31/10/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 17th. October, 2009 when the Group 1 Caulfield Cup was run over 2,400 metres.

Caulfield
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 6 metres
Penetrometer: 5.43

R1 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: So Anyway
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-15
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: John P. Thompson

R2 $100,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Weasley
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 6-11
Result this start: 2nd .
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Livia
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1610
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: David Hayes

R4 $125,000 Norman Robinson Stakes.
3YO. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Shamoline Warrior
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R5 $125,000 4YO & Up. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Sniper's Bullet
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Tracey Bartley

R6 $180,000 Mares. Group 2. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Hot Danish
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 5-16
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Les Bridge

R7 $125,000 Group 3. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Baughurst
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 5-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R8 $2,500,000 Caulfield Cup.
Group 1. Open. Handicap.

Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 18
Favourite: Predatory Pricer
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 12th.
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Paul Murray

R9 $200,000 Group 2. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: First Command
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R10 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Solchow
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Kel Chapman

Comments:
The favourites in R1, R2, R3, R6 and R7 were all unplaced at their previous start. Only in R7 did Baughurst, $4.00, win. In R5 Sniper's Bullet jumped in distance from 1100 metres to 1400 metres and did not win.
There were two winners from the other four favourites. They were Shamoline Warrior, $3.50, in R4 which was coming off a win 14 days earlier and First Command, $2.50, in R9 which was coming off a second 14 days earlier.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting tips, facts and figures
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 10/10/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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