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31/10/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 10th. October, 2009 when the 3YO Group 1 Caulfield Guineas and the Group 1 Toorak Handicap were run.

Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: True Position
Penetrometer: 5.18

R1 $70,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: King Pulse
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1103
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R2 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Maxisun
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R3 $125,000 Thoroughbred Club Stakes.
3YO Fillies. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Avenue
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $200,000 Schillaci Stakes.
3YO & up. Group 2. Weight for Age.

Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Apache Cat
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 6-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Greg Eurell

R5 $400,000 Yalumba Stakes.
3YO & up. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Whobegotyou
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.15
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R6 $350,000 Group 1. Toorak Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 17
Equal Favourite: Raheeb
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Mick Price
Equal Favourite: Raffaello
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R7 $1,000,000 Caulfield Guineas.
3YO. Group 1. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Denman
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R8 $200,000 Herbert Power Stakes.
Quality. Group 2. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Shocking
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 3-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R9 $100,000 Mares. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Velocitea
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

Comments:
There were four winners from the 10 favourites. The biggest number of days from the last start was 24. Nine of the 10 favourites won or placed at their previous start. In R4 the favourite, Apache Cat, finished sixth at its previous start. Damien Oliver won on his two other favourites, but could only finish second on Apache Cat.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting tips, facts and figures
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/10/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/10/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 10/10/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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