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2/11/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 23rd. October, 2010.

On this day the $3,000,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Cox Plate was run over 2400 metres at Moonee Valley horse racing track and won for the second year in a row by the Bart Cummings trained 4YO horse So You Think.

Moonee Valley - Cox Plate Day: Track Dead.

R5 $300,000 Group 2. Weight for Age. A. J. Moir Stakes. (Registered name.)
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Black Caviar
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody


Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Karuta Queen
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Neville Layt

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Zachary
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.35
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: The Last General
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $14.20
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Clarry Conners

R3 $70,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Gigino
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Chris Waller


Morphettville: Track Dead.

R1 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Bob's Shout
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Roslyn Day

R2 $25,000 4YO. Rating 68. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Public Holiday
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.90
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: John P. Thompson
Winner: Excellerant
Starting price: $4.50
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting tips, facts and figures
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: Cox Plate Day - 23/10/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Caulfield Cup Day - 16/10/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Caulfield Guineas Day - 9/10/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/10/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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