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9/10/2010 edition

Identifying False Horse Racing Favourites

Many backmarkers are risky bets

Watch out for horses at short odds that always settle near the rear of the field. Particularly if they are coming back in distance without a decent freshen up. The following racing story has happened thousands of times - with punters regularly doing their money and will continue to happen thousands of times in the future.

"Expelled was sent out a short priced $2.80 favourite in a Fillies and Mares Class 6 over 1200 metres at Eagle Farm. Expelled was a very poor bet at the odds and clearly a false favourite. Consider these points:

1. Expelled is a backmarker. As a general rule, taking $2.80 about backmarkers is asking for trouble. In a field of 11 it looked very skinny odds.

2. Expelled also had barrier 10, with the possibility of not only being back in the field, but trapped wide or having to be eased right down to settle a stone motherless last.

3. Following two runs in its campaign at 1200 metres and then 1350 metres, Expelled was dropping back to 1200 metres. Backing a horse at short odds dropping back in distance like that is generally asking for trouble.

4. Expelled had won dropping back in distance before. On November 10 the previous year she won over 1350 metres and then won over 1200 metres at her next start, on December 8. That was a break of four weeks, a genuine freshen up.

5. On June 29 this year Expelled finished second over 1350 metres, hitting the line hard after settling well back in the field. The drop back in distance on Saturday, July 13, was only two weeks after that run. That is difficult enough for an on pace/leader to manage. For a backmarker - just about forget it.

As the race panned out, Expelled settled well back, last in the field, and was about 10 lengths off the pace at the home turn. The filly made up some ground in the straight, but still finished a well beaten eighth.
Based on Punt to Win, 19th. July, 2002.

Now that's not the sort of run you want to leave yourself open to as a big chance too often when taking short betting odds of just $2.80.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Professional Punter - identifying false horse racing favourites
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Big Odds Big Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/10/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 25/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/9/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 18/9/2010
Punt to Win index


2009 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners
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Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Strawberry Field 21.00 32.60 $116
Right Fong 13.70 17.00 $33
Majestic Music 9.80 13.00 $32
Common Interest 9.20 12.00 $28
She's Got Gears 10.00 12.60 $26
Flying Tessie 11.00 13.40 $24
Shocking 9.80 11.00 $12


 

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