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9/10/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result from Saturday, 25th. September, 2010.
On this day the $350,000 Group 1 Weight for Age George Main Stakes, run over 1600 metres, was held at Randwick horse racing track and won by the $1.60 favourite, 4YO mare More Joyous, ridden by Corey Brown and trained by Gai Waterhouse.. The night before the $500,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Manikato Stakes, run over 1200 metres, was held at Moonee Valley horse racing track and won by the $1.50 favourite, 5YO gelding Hay List, ridden by Glyn Schofield and trained by John McNair.

Randwick: Track Dead.

R1 $125,000 3YO & UP. Group 3. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Herculian Prince
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $1.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: No Wine No Song
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.90
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Kevin Moses

This edition of Punt to Win:
Professional Punter - identifying false horse racing favourites
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Big Odds Big Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/10/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 25/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/9/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 18/9/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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