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9/10/2010 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Morphettville - 2/10/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sandhill Prince
60kg.
4
1600
$4.00
5/8
Very Discreet
59.5kg.
3
1100
$2.00fav.
3/8
Moonee Valley- 24/9/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
With Decorum
59.5kg.
7
1600
$4.60
3/8
Caulfield - 18/9/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Altius
59kg.
8
1700
$2.10fav.
2/8
Here De Angels
61kg.
1
1200
$4.40
Lost rider
Morphettville - 18/9/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Shekinaar
59.5kg.
1
1100
$6.00
4/9
Rosehill - 11/9/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Zutara
59.5kg.
7
1200
$5.00
3/8
Syreon
60kg.
10
1500
$5.00
5/11
Stratofortress
60.5kg.
12
1800
$7.00
2/13
Morphettville - 11/9/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
The Fugitive
59.5kg.
1
1000
$6.50
8/11
Alcopop
60kg.
10
1600
$4.00
9/12
Sound Journey
59kg.
2
1600
$3.60fav.
5/12
Flemington - 4/9/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Jungle Ruler
59.5kg.
15
1400
$10.00
2/16
Eagle Farm - 4/9/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Fillydelphia
59kg.
10
1600
$1.65fav.
6/10
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Professional Punter - identifying false horse racing favourites
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Big Odds Big Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/10/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 25/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/9/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 18/9/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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