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2/11/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 9th. October, 2010.
On this day the $1,000,000 3YO Group 1 Caulfield Guineas, run over 1600 metres, the $400,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Caulfield Stakes (registered name,) run over 2000 metres and the $350,000 Group 1 Toorak Handicap, run over 1600 metres, waere held at Caulfield horse racing track.

Caulfield: Track R1-2 Dead, R3-9 Good.

R5 $400,000 Caulfield Stakes. 3YO & UP. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: So You Think
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Bart Cummings


Eagle Farm: Track Heavy.

R4 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Lifeboat
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Eddie Wilkinson
Trainer: Bill Thompson
Winner: Patties Mate
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Jason Taylor
Trainer: Shane Barling

R5 $45,000 NMW. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Cariad
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Steele Ryan
Winner: Lotsamoola
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.20
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Brett Bellamy


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $40,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Bel Franc
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell

R3 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Saddler's Story
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting tips, facts and figures
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: Cox Plate Day - 23/10/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Caulfield Cup Day - 16/10/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: Caulfield Guineas Day - 9/10/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/10/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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