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2/12/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 25th. November.

Randwick Kensington Inner Track: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Yasumori
Result: third
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: O'Crikey
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Gary Portelli

R2 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Class 5. Handicap.
Distance: 1150 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: O'Perfect One
Result: second
Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.10
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Kevin Moses
Winner: Sally's World
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $55,000 3YO Fillies. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1150 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Interfere
Result: third
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Tim Martin
Winner: Face Of The Earth
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes


Sandown Hillside: Track Good

R1 $45,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Tango Amigo's
Result: first

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Wendy Kelly


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Seattle Lass
Result: first

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

R3 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Family Guy
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Idalou
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Jason Lyon
Trainer: Trevor Dansie

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flexi betting trifecta tips
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Upset Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Sandown
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/11/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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