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4/8/2007 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Creating value from short priced favourites

Whenever there are short priced horses that media tipsters think should win they usually advise an all-up mugs' bet to "create value."

For example if there are short priced favourites in consecutive races it is often suggested to go all up to obtain value. For example, if both horses are paying $2.00 for the win, a $10 wager on the first horse will give you $20 when it wins. Place the $20 on the next good thing at $2.00 and when it wins you have turned your initial outlay of $10 into $40, which is like backing a $4.00 winner.

Sounds simple, doesn't it.

On Saturday most punters thought Some Are Bent was a certainty to win the Hiskens Steeplechase at Moonee Valley. I saw a punter place a $200 double (which is an all up bet) on Some Are Bent into favourites Ista Kareem and Baughurst in the next race at Moonee Valley.

Ista Kareem and Baughurst finished second. The problem was that Some Are Bent ran third, beaten more than 10 lengths by the upset $21.40 tote winner, Spanish Symbol.

Put simply, taking $1.65 about a jumper winning a steeple chase over 3700 metres in a field of 12 horses is absurd. When you take under the odds, which Some Are Bent most definitely was at $1.65, it is usually not possible to create value by going all up with another favourite, particularly if it is a short priced favourite under its true winning odds.

It's just as stupid advice as telling you to create value going all up black into red when playing roulette. Sure, if you are successful you will have turned a $10 bet into $40 and made a profit of $30. Instead of a $2.00 winner you have got $4.00.

But because you are still getting under the odds about each bet, you are on a guaranteed way of losing money long term, notwithstanding the occasional success when $10 becomes $40.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Creating value wagering short priced favourites
Get those betting odds
The No Luck Big Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/7/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/7/2007 & 21/7/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Warwick Farm & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/7/2007
Punt to Win index

2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


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