Punt to Win
Horse Racing Betting Tips
Creating value from short priced favourites
Whenever there are short priced horses that media tipsters think should win they usually advise an all-up mugs' bet to "create value."
For example if there are short priced favourites in consecutive races it is often suggested to go all up to obtain value. For example, if both horses are paying $2.00 for the win, a $10 wager on the first horse will give you $20 when it wins. Place the $20 on the next good thing at $2.00 and when it wins you have turned your initial outlay of $10 into $40, which is like backing a $4.00 winner.
Sounds simple, doesn't it.
On Saturday most punters thought Some Are Bent was a certainty to win the Hiskens Steeplechase at Moonee Valley. I saw a punter place a $200 double (which is an all up bet) on Some Are Bent into favourites Ista Kareem and Baughurst in the next race at Moonee Valley.
Ista Kareem and Baughurst finished second. The problem was that Some Are Bent ran third, beaten more than 10 lengths by the upset $21.40 tote winner, Spanish Symbol.
Put simply, taking $1.65 about a jumper winning a steeple chase over 3700 metres in a field of 12 horses is absurd. When you take under the odds, which Some Are Bent most definitely was at $1.65, it is usually not possible to create value by going all up with another favourite, particularly if it is a short priced favourite under its true winning odds.
It's just as stupid advice as telling you to create value going all up black into red when playing roulette. Sure, if you are successful you will have turned a $10 bet into $40 and made a profit of $30. Instead of a $2.00 winner you have got $4.00.
But because you are still getting under the odds about each bet, you are on a guaranteed way of losing money long term, notwithstanding the occasional success when $10 becomes $40.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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