Punt to Win

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4/8/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 28th. July.

Warwick Farm: Track Slow

R1 $65,000 2YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Rapid Jacko
Result: first

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.65
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

Moonee Valley: Track Heavy

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Laspiel
Result: third
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Tan Tat De Lago
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Kate Dyson
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

Cheltenham: Track Dead

R5 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: Straight Legs
Result: first

Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Jamie Edwards
Equal Favourite: Rossi
Result: second
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Peter Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Creating value wagering short priced favourites
Get those betting odds
The No Luck Big Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/7/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/7/2007 & 21/7/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Warwick Farm & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/7/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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