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4/8/2007 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Doomben - 28/7/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Stolit
59kg.
4
1200
$2.80fav.
2/13
Mr Aristos
59kg.
9
1110
$7.50
2/10
Cheltenham - 28/7/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Straight Legs
59kg.
4
1000
$3.40e.fav.
1/6
El Mazr
59kg.
1
1000
$3.50
2/6
Rosehill - 21/7/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Taken At The Flood
59.5kg.
12
2000
$8.50
9/16
Rosehill - 7/7/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Taken At The Flood
60kg.
3
1900
$11.00
4/9
Cheltenham - 30/6/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gunner Tom
59kg.
5
1316
$4.80
3/9
Doomben - 26/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sniper's Bullet
60kg.
3
1200
$3.80
2/11
Rosehill - 19/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Vanquished
60.5kg.
7
2400
$11.00
6/14
Cheltenham - 19/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Musanid
59kg.
13
1260
$6.50
1/14
Doomben - 12/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ten To Countdown
59kg.
8
1350
$5.50
6/15
Morphettville - 12/5/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Apamea
59kg.
5
1200
$10.00
3/8
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Creating value wagering short priced favourites
Get those betting odds
The No Luck Big Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/7/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/7/2007 & 21/7/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Warwick Farm & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/7/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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