Punt to Win

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4/8/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 21st. July.

Rosehill: Track Dead

R1 $65,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Turffontein
Result: second
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Winner: Triple Honour
Starting price: $9.50
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.40
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $65,000 3YO Fillies. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Jetwash
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Tim Martin
Winner: Danz In Paris
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Chris Waller


Here are the results from Saturday, 14th. July.

Randwick Kensington Inner Track: Track Slow

R1 $65,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Gergis
Result: first

Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes


Morphettville: Track Dead

R6 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Secret Daughter
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.60
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Heather Frew
Winner: El Maze
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Creating value wagering short priced favourites
Get those betting odds
The No Luck Big Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/7/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/7/2007 & 21/7/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Warwick Farm & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/7/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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