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Punt to Win
Horse Racing Betting Tips
Fitness, lightly raced horses and strike rates
Winners keep winning, losers keep losing
There's nothing surer in horse racing. Horses with excellent win strike rates, lightly raced horses and fit horses will often surprise at double figure odds, even when they look out of their class. Many first up horses, even if they look classes ahead of their opposition, and horses with shocking win strike rates will continue to lose when you expect them to win and should not be backed at short odds.
Like last Saturday at Canterbury.
The final race for the day, a modest 3YO Fillies Class 3 over 1200 metres, was won by the Patrick Webster trained Dancesteps which started at $26.00. Dancesteps had won her only start four weeks earlier, a Fillies & Mares Maiden at Newcastle over 1200 metres. She was the $3.00 favourite in that race.
Or like last Saturday at Doomben.
The feature race of the day was a $150,000 3YO set weights event over 1350 metres. There were 11 runners. La Montagna won and paid tote odds up to $16.40. She had three wins and three placings from 10 starts, and was hard race fit. At her previous start, three weeks earlier, she finished second in a photo in a 3YO Fillies Quality race.
By contrast, the $1.55 favourite, Fashions Afield, was first up, having last raced on October 1. That's right. First up and sent out at $1.55. Absolutely farcical. No wonder punters lose at racing if they take odds like that in those circumstances. Fashions Afield finished sixth.
To further illustrate, here's an example on file from a few years ago.
In a restricted 1000 metres race at Cheltenham Helium was sent out the $4.50 favourite. Strike rate. Two wins from 32 starts. No thanks.
Helium led to the home turn, battled on well enough in the straight and finished second, beaten by two lengths. That is exactly why the five year old gelding has such a poor winning strike rate.
The winner, Pontevidra who paid up to $12.50 on the tote was first up from a spell of seven months. The five year old gelding was having his first start for his new trainer Jeremy Gask. Leading South Australian rider, Travis Creek had the ride. Now that's a clue for you.
You only had to check any decent formguide to see that Pontevidra had five wins from 26 starts, was a first up winner and had won at the distance. At the odds Pontevidra had to be a far superior bet to non winner Helium.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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