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7/1/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 17th. December.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tactfully
Result: first

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.55
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes


Flemington: Track Good

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Trictrac
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Matt Pumpa
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: She Will Be Loved
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sonic Quest
Result: first

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Victoria Park: Track Dead

R1 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: Golden Notes
Result: first

Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Equal Favourite: Koala Blue
Result: second
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.80
Jockey: Dominic Tourneur
Trainer: Sue Jaensch

R2 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Amyjaye Power
Result: sixth
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Jeffrey Maund
Trainer: Gary Kennewell
Winner: Terravue
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Andrew Gluyas

R4 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Endless Odyssey
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Subella
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.80
Jockey: Nicole Stone
Trainer: Stuart Gower

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - fitness, lightly raced horses & strike rates
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Class Runner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 17/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields - 24/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields: Canterbury & Moonee Valley, 31/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields: Doomben & Morphettville, 31/12/2005
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track, 17/12/2005 - Randwick and Flemington
Betting tips from the track, 24/12/2005 - Warwick Farm and Sandown
Betting tips from the track, 31/12/2005 - Canterbury and Moonee Valley
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/12/2005
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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