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7/1/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 31st. December.

Doomben: Track Good

R1 $40,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1640 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Wolfman
Result: third
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Grand Lover
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Scott Seamer
Trainer: Troy Hall

R2 $40,000 Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Mantle
Result: first

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Jason Taylor
Trainer: John Hawkes

R5 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tornado Alley
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Maryann Thexton


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Snipify
Result: sixth
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Thorton
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $16.70
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: David Baylis

R2 $20,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Ejaad
Result: first

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

R3 $25,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Jumaana
Result: first

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Shayne Cahill
Trainer: Gary Kennewell

R4 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 2510 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Ichibad
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: Ron Daniel
Winner: Sleatbank
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Kate Walters
Trainer: Wayne Walters

R5 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cashkalani
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: David Balfour
Winner: Like Jon
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.70
Jockey: Jarrod Lorensini
Trainer: Graham Fryer

R7 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2005 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Nikalapko
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Chris Bryant
Trainer: Jeremy Gask
Winner: Our Axeman
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.40
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Karen Byrnes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - fitness, lightly raced horses & strike rates
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Class Runner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 17/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields - 24/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields: Canterbury & Moonee Valley, 31/12/2005
Betting favourites in small fields: Doomben & Morphettville, 31/12/2005
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track, 17/12/2005 - Randwick and Flemington
Betting tips from the track, 24/12/2005 - Warwick Farm and Sandown
Betting tips from the track, 31/12/2005 - Canterbury and Moonee Valley
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/12/2005
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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