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9/1/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 2nd. January, 2010.

Moonee Valley: Track Dead

R1 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Orbiting Belle
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Hooness
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.40
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Jason Petch


Gold Coast: Track Slow

R1 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Humma
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Robert Heathcote


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $31,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Evidentia
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $26,500 3YO. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Rock The Moment
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.26
Top fluctuation: $1.26
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R3 $31,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Daydream Charlie
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Shane Oxlade
Winner: Luvbite
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Sam Turner

This edition of Punt to Win:
What is a good horse racing betting race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Improver horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/12/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/12/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 12/12/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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