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9/1/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Flemington horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 19th. December, 2009 at the Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington
Track: R1-3 Dead, R4-8 Good.
Rail: Out 3 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.88

R1 $70,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Tricarico
Days since last start: 77
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 4-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Marconi
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Luminous Harmony
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Saddler's Story
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 2255
Result last start: 5-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R5 $70,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Fairygem
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R6 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Syndrome
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1590
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Arinos
Days since last start: 105
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 8-15
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: David Jolly

R8 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Scenica
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Comments:
Three favourites won, with Saddler's Story in R4 winning after being unplaced at its previous start, however it was beaten by less than two lengths. In R7 Arinos resumed after a spell of more than 100 days and did not win.

This edition of Punt to Win:
What is a good horse racing betting race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Improver horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/12/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/12/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 12/12/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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