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9/1/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Moonee Valley night meeting held on Saturday, 2nd. January, 2010.

Moonee Valley
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 3 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.93

R1 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Orbiting Belle
Days since last start: 119
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 9-13
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Mick Price

R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Testa My Patience
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $70,000 Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 3000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Cheddington
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 5-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Michael Kent

R4 $70,000 Rating 78. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: True Persuasion
Days since last start: 161
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R5 $70,000 Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Old Jock
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1440
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Mick Price

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Custodian
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 11th.

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Matt Pumpa
Trainer: Tom Dabernig

R7 $70,000 Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Tango's Choice
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 5-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Mick Price

R8 $70,000 Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 8
Equal Favourite: The Tiger
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.00
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Colin & Cindy Alderson
Equal Favourite: The Red Emperor
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 7-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Doug Harrison

Comments:
It was a profitable meeting for favourites punters with three winners at bookmaker top fluctuation odds of $4.60, $3.30 and $3.10. In R1 Orbiting Belle after a spell of 119 days finished third over 1200 metres. However in R4 True Persuasion resumed from a spell of 161 days and won over 1200 metres. In R3 Cheddington jumped from an unplaced run over 2400 metres to 3000 metres seven days later and won. However in R7 Tango's Choice, which had also been unplaced at its previous race, a run over 1200 metres, dropped back in distance to 1000 metres 28 days later and did not win. Also unplaced at its previous start, in R8 The Red Emperor did not win. In R6 Custodian had a freshen up of 42 days between 1000 metres races which did not work out and finished eleventh.

This edition of Punt to Win:
What is a good horse racing betting race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Improver horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/12/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/12/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 12/12/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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