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9/1/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 12th. December, 2009 at the Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington
Track: Good.
Rail: True position.
Penetrometer: 4.84

R1 $70,000 2YO Fillies. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Red Belly Black
Days since last start: First race start
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Rain Shadow
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.55
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Gibraltar Moon
Days since last start: 37
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 6-16
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Sound Journey
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.45
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Right Fong
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 4-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: David Balfour

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Iamzeus
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Beltrois
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R8 $70,000 Mares. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Vitex
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Dale Sutton

Comments:
Punters backing the favourites had a profitable day, with three winners at the good starting price odds of $4.20, $3.80 and $3.50. In R3 Gibraltar Moon dropped back in distance from 1200 metres to 1000 metres after a freshen up of 37 days and was well supported in the bookmakers' betting ring but finished third. In R5 and R7 the favourites both won after being unplaced at their previous starts, however their pre3vious starts were not disasters as they were both in the money in their previous starts as they both finished fourth.

This edition of Punt to Win:
What is a good horse racing betting race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Improver horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/12/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/12/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/12/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/12/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 12/12/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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