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10/1/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 20th. December.

Randwick: Track Good
Villiers Stakes Day

R1 $70,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Hasta Pronto
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Foreign News
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.70
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Garry White


Flemington: Track Dead

R1 $75,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties..
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Baby Corn
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Quick Blush
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Instructor
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: John Sadler
Winner: Game Serena
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $12.90
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: Ron Gravett


Doomben: Track Good

R1 $45,000 Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Feline Flyer
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Daniel Griffin
Trainer: Gillian Heinrich
Winner: Andamon
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.80
Jockey: Danny Craven
Trainer: Olivia Cairns


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $25,500 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Outlandish Lad
Result: first

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Kylie Huxtable


This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/12/2008
The Trifecta Gold horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/12/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/12/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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