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10/1/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 20th. December, 2008.

Flemington
Track: Good 3
Rail: Out 3m. entire circuit
Penetrometer: 4.74

R1 $75,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Baby Corn
Days since last start: 71
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-3
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Instructor
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: John Sadler

R3 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Equal Favourite: Warm Whispers
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: David Hayes
Equal Favourite: Braided General
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R4 $75,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Ravishing Reward
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R5 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Butwaittheresmore
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 2440
Result last start: 3-7
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R6 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Keano
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 6-12
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R7 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Immortality
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R8 $75,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Raeburn
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Comments:
A very poor day for favourites. In R8 Raeburn dropped back in distance 440 metres without success.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/12/2008
The Trifecta Gold horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/12/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/12/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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