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10/1/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 13th. December.

Rosehill: Track Heavy

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Stryker
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Indian Ocean
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Tim Martin

R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Malambo
Result: second
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: High Bowman
Trainer: Clarry Conners
Winner: Ledger
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Peter Wells
Trainer: Terry Robinson


Flemington: Track Slow

R1 $75,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Carlton Forward
Result: first

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Ballack
Result: second
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Winner: Ulysses
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Luke Oliver

R3 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: La Bella Roo
Result: second
Starting price: $4.40
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Peter Boynton
Winner: Tempest Tost
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Gary White

R4 $75,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Gratis
Result: third
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Youthful High
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.80
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R7 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Galloping Hill
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Terry & Karina O'Sullivan
Winner: Chortova
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: John McArdle


Morphettville: Track Slow

R1 $25,500 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Momuntai Momuntai
Result: first

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Kate Dyson
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $25,500 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Elusive One
Result: third
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Marryatville
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Damien Robinson
Trainer: David Balfour

R3 $20,000 Fillies & Mares. Rst75. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cindy's Legacy
Result: sixth
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Shavano's Honour
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Paul Seater


This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/12/2008
The Trifecta Gold horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/12/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/12/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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