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10/1/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 13th. December, 2008.

Flemington
Track: Slow 7
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 5.1

R1 $75,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Carlton Forward
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Ballack
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R3 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: La Bella Roo
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Peter Boynton

R4 $75,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Gratis
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 4-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Lord Monty
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-6
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: David Hayes

R6 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Silky Smooth
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: David Hayes

R7 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Galloping Hill
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 7-12
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Terry & Karina O'Sullivan

R8 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Vigor
Days since last start: 5
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Comments:
Two of the three winning favourites won at their previous start, the other ran second. The two favourites that were unplaced at their previous start did not win. Ballack, R2, racing at 2000 metres after a break of 35 days also did not win, even though it started at odds on $1.80.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/12/2008
The Trifecta Gold horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/12/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/12/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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