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10/1/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 3rd January, 2009.

Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: 7 metres out
Penetrometer: 5.18

R1 $60,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Baby Corn
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 2-7
 Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $60,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Brunello
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Andrew Mallyon
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

R3 $60,000 Spec. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Whiskey Cruyff
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 8-16
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Noonan

R4 $60,000 Rst95. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Stolit
Days since last start: 195
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 6-12
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R5 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Rst72. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Red Flair
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

R6 $60,000 Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Mastercraft
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R7 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Be Mine
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1204
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Stephen Aldridge

R8 $60,000 Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Fordee
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

Comments:
Of note was that in R3 Whiskey Cruyff finished eighth at his previous start and then failed again as favourite on Saturday. In R4, after a spell of more than six months, Stolit disappointed favourite punters and failed to run a place. While in R5, Red Flair had a freshen up of 35 days between runs over 1000 metres. It did not work.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses first up from a spell
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/12/2008
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/12/2008
The Trifecta Gold horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/12/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/12/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 13/12/2008
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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