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10/5/2002 edition

Betting Odds and Tips

Larry Olsen, you don't "have to take" poor odds

Here's what Sky Racing's Brisbane man at the track, former jockey Larry Olsen, said talking about hot favourite Cassimir before the first at Eagle Farm last Saturday.

"Looking at him here parading in the enclosure, well he looks as he's gone on, this horse. There's a lot expected of him. The only thing that might stand in his road here is of course we've got a soft track. (It's his) first go at it. They've rolled the track. I still don't think they can beat, him, Cassimir. John Wallace (trainer) has got a very big opinion of him... This is pretty short about $1.60. Well, we'll just have to take that."

Larry Olsen has correctly identified two problems with the bet on Cassimir:

1. It's the horse's first run on a rain affected track
2. The horse's odds were very short at $1.60.

The correct conclusion was to tell his audience not to back the horse. Unfortunately Larry Olsen did not say that. When you know a horse is poor odds why say "we'll just have to take that."

The huge advantages punters have over bookmakers is deciding what races they want to bet in and what odds to accept. If you identify a horse as no value you leave the horse alone and do not back it. It's as simple as that.

If most punters had an understanding of market percentages and were prepared to be more discriminating with their bets then bookmakers like those in Adelaide would not be able to offer plenty of markets at 130%+ and attract plenty of business.


This edition of Punt to Win:
Adelaide bookmakers - tight betting odds
Larry Olsen, you don't "have to take" poor odds
Value and open betting races
Media hype horses - be wary
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Victoria Park plunge horses
Money talks - Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/5/2002
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Remember short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Air She Goes
4.30 6.00 52% $170
Dolphin Dance
3.80 5.00 43% $120
Lady Cay
3.10 4.20 53% $110
Air Of Grace
2.40 3.00 43% $60


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