Punt to Win

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10/5/2002 edition

Plunge Horses
Money Talks?

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was. To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (4/1 or 20%) to $4.00 ( 3/1 or 25%) it will qualify. Odds calculator gives you tables.

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Eagle Farm, Saturday, 4th.May 2002

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm Finish Beaten/winning margin
Skytripper 10.00 6.50 5.38 1/17 1.8 lengths
Michael McDonald Clarry Conners

Only one horse at Eagle Farm firmed the necessary 5% in the bookies' betting ring to qualify as a meaningful plunge for us. It also brought home the money.

Considering the Brisbane Winter Carnival is now on in full force, only one horse firming significantly is a reflection of the tight betting odds on offer with markets opening to very high percentages, which usually means horses must ease in the betting.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Adelaide bookmakers - tight betting odds
Larry Olsen, you don't "have to take" poor odds
Value and open betting races
Media hype horses - be wary
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Victoria Park plunge horses
Money talks - Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/5/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor tote odds you must lose.

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