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15/5/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 8th. May, 2010.

Flemington
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 10 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.82

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Crawfish
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 13
Equal Favourite: Dubleanny
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price
Equal Favourite: Screen
Days since last start: 116
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 7-7
Result this start: 12th.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R3 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Undeniably
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R4 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Hawks Bay
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Neil Dyer

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1620 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Kallog
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Lee & Shannon Hope

R6 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2800 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Irazu
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 15-16
Result this start: 8th.

Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Steve Richards

R7 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Tenzing
Days since last start: 6
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 6-16
Result this start: 3rd.

Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Sebastian Murphy
Trainer: David Bourne

R8 $75,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Marchelle Belle
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 10th.

Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Comments:
Not a good day for favourites punters with just one winner from nine favourites. In R2 equal favourite Screen resumed from a spell of 116 days and finished twelfth. In R6 punters sent out Irazu as the favourite despite Irazu finishing fifteenth at its last start and also dropping back in distance from 2800 metres to 2000 metres. Irazu finished eighth this time. In R7 Tenzing, also unplaced at its previous start just six days earlier, was also dropping back in distance - from 2500 metres to 2000 metres. Tenzing ran third. While in R8, the last race of the day, Marchelle Belle was also dropping back in distance, from 1600 metres 21 days earlier to 1410 metres. Marchelle Belle finished tenth.

This edition of Punt to Win:
The Goblin's Wishing Well Horse Racing Betting System
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Lucky Eleven horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 1/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/4/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/5/2010, 1/5/2010 & 24/4/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 24/4/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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