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15/5/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Caulfield horse racing track on Saturday, 1st. May, 2010.

Caulfield
Track: Dead.
Rail: Out 8 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.32

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Ocean Challenger
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Darren Magro

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Johanski
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R3 $70,000 3YO and UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Ariarni
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 7-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R4 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Miss Elvee
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 4-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Morgan Dollar
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jordan Mallyon
Trainer: Stuart Gower

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Nine Tales
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R7 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Cinecitta
Days since last start: 38
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Reverend Lovejoy
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: David Hayes

Comments:
Punters backing favourites had a solid losing day, with only one favourite, Nine Tales $3.30, winning from the eight races. Nine Tales finished second two weeks earlier. Three horses were sent out as favourites after freshen ups. They were:
Ariarni, 42 days in R3.
Morgan Dollar, 42 days in R5
Cinecitta 38 days in R7.
Ariarni and Morgan Dollar both finished second on Saturday while Cinecitta was unplaced.
In R1 Ocean Challenger was sent out as favourite despite being unplaced at its previous start. As was Miss Elvee in R4. Ocean Challenger ran third of seven, while Miss Elvee finished second on Saturday.

This edition of Punt to Win:
The Goblin's Wishing Well Horse Racing Betting System
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Lucky Eleven horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 1/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/4/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/5/2010, 1/5/2010 & 24/4/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 24/4/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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