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15/5/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 24th. April, 2010 at the Sandown Hillside horse racing track.

Sandown Hillside
Track: Dead.
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 5.42

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Vivid Vixen
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Garozzo
Days since last start: 23
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Lucky Angel
Days since last start: first race start
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R4 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Melbourne Rose
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1715
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

R5 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Eight Bills
Days since last start: 78
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Gary Portelli

R6 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Currency Cugat
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 7-16
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R7 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Ocean Challenger
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Darren Magro

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Dollops
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Luke Oliver

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a losing meeting with only two winners in R1 and R5. Vivid Vixen in R1 was a last start winner two weeks earlier. However, Eight Bills in R5 was resuming from a spell of 78 days. In R6 punters sent out Currency Cugat as the $4.40 favourite, solidly backed from $5.50. Currency Cugat was jumping in distance from 1500 metres to 1800 metres after finishing seventh at its previous start, 10 days earlier. Currency Cugat was again unplaced.

This edition of Punt to Win:
The Goblin's Wishing Well Horse Racing Betting System
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Lucky Eleven horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 1/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/4/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/5/2010, 1/5/2010 & 24/4/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 24/4/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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