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18/10/2014 edition

"This Horse Can't Win Because of the Barrier"

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Wide barriers - the betting myth

A wide barrier is often given as the reason why a horse has little chance in a race or used as an excuse to explain a poor run. This is generally not correct.

Some time ago an acquaintance who regularly loses on the punt was trying to convince me to back a horse that had the horrendous form in finishing 13th of 14 and 12th. of 13 at its previous two starts. He told me to ignore those runs by the gelding, putting the blame on the wide barriers it started from. He confidently added, in a tone that indicated he thought he was giving me some winning inside information, "It's got barrier one today."

He even said, "If you've found a good, consistent horse nine out of 10 times when it runs a bad race it is because of its wide barrier!"

I politely told him that I had a different view that barriers are generally not that relevant at all.

Why, only a a few months earlier the same horse he was telling me to back had finished 13th. of 15 at Doomben, not from a wide barrier but from barrier one. It had missed the start and raced erratically. The fact of the matter was that when it recently ran 12th. out of 13, beaten by nearly 10 lengths, from a wide barrier, it also raced erratically. That result had absolutely nothing to do with the wide barrier but more to do with the gelding's racing manners.

If you're going to find good bets you must know what to look for. Blaming bad runs on wide barriers and expecting substantial improvement because of a supposed good barrier does not work. It is just too simplistic.

The barrier is just one of many factors to be taken into account. Because so many punters automatically dismiss horses with wide barriers it can give you the opportunity to get on some good bets at good value.

To win at racing you must be different from the herd. Sure, take barriers into consideration. But don't refuse to back a horse just because it has a wide barrier.

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse can't win because of the barrier."
The Free Tipster Longshot horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 11/10/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 4/10/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 28/9/2014 & 26/9/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 11/10/2014

Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 4/10/2014
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 27/9/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 27/9/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

On Saturday, 19th. July 2014, our tipster Lucky Lil gave 4 tips with Evangelist a fantastic winner at Rosehill with $16.00 available on track!

While First By A Nose gave 6 tips with 4 winners. They were O'Malley, $4.80 TF, Cradle Me $3.70, Aeratus $3.60 and Generalife $2.70.

On Saturday 12th. July, Lucky Lil's 3 tips at odds from $7.90 to $9.70 all missed a place, but the week before Lucky Lil's one tip Generalife won at Rosehill with $7.50 available on track!

On Saturday 12th. July First By A Nose gave 5 tips with Akavoroun, $6.90 and Atlantis Dream, $4.60, both winning. Hard Stride, $9.80, finished a close second at Flemington.

Our tipsters have had some fantastic winning days in the past such as:

On Saturday, 23rd. November, 2013, our tipster gave followers Padrino, a $51.00 winner and the Free Ratings found a $19,048.40 First Four at Eagle Farm!!

On Saturday, 16th. November, 2013, our tipster gave followers Missing Page, $15.00 winner and Ninth Legion, $7.00 winner!

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2013 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Mujadale 15.00 18.70 $111
Bernabeu 10.90 13.00 $63
Chile Express 14.00 16.00 $60
Plucky Belle 15.50 17.30 $54
Oakleigh Girl 5.50 6.50 $30
Richie's Vibe 7.70 8.50 $24
Fiorente 6.90 7.50 $18
Salon Soldier 2.70 3.20 $15
Wistful 4.40 4.80 $12
Moderate 1.90 2.15 $7.50

 

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